Philippine Economy 2010 - World Bank Forecasts Growth at 3.5%The World Bank (WB) expects the Philippine economy 2010 to grow by 3.5 percent this year and follow through with 3.8 percent next year, according to forecasts in its Global Economic Prospects 2010 report.The report studied the impact of the global financial crisis on the growth prospects of developing countries. It concluded that the consequences would be felt over the next five to seven years, cutting the growth trajectory of developing countries by 0.2 up to 0.7 percentage points annually. Over the long term, potential output could be reduced by 3.4 up to 8 percent compared to levels reached before the crisis happened, it said. In the case of the Philippine economy 2010, the economy was escalating from an average growth of 4.2 percent from 1995-2005 to 5.3 percent in 2006 before reaching a peak of 7.1 percent in 2007. In 2008, when the crisis ravaged many economies around the world, the country still managed to grow at 3.8 percent. “The depth of the recession and the relative weakness of the expected recovery suggest that significant spare capacity, high unemployment, and weak inflationary pressures will continue to characterize both high-income and developing countries for some time,” the WB said in the report. It said in the report that developing countries could face a total financing gap of as much as $315 billion this year. It said this liquidity crunch would also make it more expensive to secure financing and thus undermine economic growth and output over the next five to seven years. Because of China, the East Asia and the Pacific region is emerging strongest around the world with 8.1 percent GDP growth expected this year and 8.2 percent next year. “Looking forward, the stabilization of international financial markets and renewed capital inflows, coupled with a strong inventory cycle, particularly among the newly industrialized economies in the region, are expected to boost growth in 2010,” the WB said. It added that moderate advances in world trade growth and continuing excess manufacturing capacity would drag economic performance in 2011. According to WB estimates, GDP growth in high-income countries contracted by 3.3 percent last year — at rates of 3.3 percent for OECD countries, 3.9 percent in the Euro area, 5.4 percent in Japan and 2.5 percent in the United States. Overall, GDP growth in developing countries was estimated at 1.2 percent in 2009 — with regional declines reported at rates of 6.2 percent in Europe and Central Asia and 2.6 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean. Due to India, South Asia was the second best-performing with regional growth estimated at 5.7 percent, followed by Middle East and North Africa at 2.9 percent and Sub-Saharan Africa at 1.1 percent. With China’s estimated 8.4-percent GDP growth in 2009, overall performance of East Asia and Pacific countries reached 6.8 percent during the year, which was stellar compared to the rest of the world. But without China, the region’s performance would be at a sobering 1.3 percent last year, which marks a decline from 4.8 percent in 2008. (PNA/Lara Jane M. Climaco)
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